According to the recent TIM (Trade Ideas Monitor) report, the TIM Sentiment Index (TSI) increased 2.1% week over week to 50.90 on August 6th, compared to 49.84 on July 30th (see last post, and previous post and the youDevise website for additional information on the TIM report). For the last few weeks, the index has been fluctuating just above and below the critical 50 mark, differentiating bullishness from bearishness. The TIM report list the daily change in the TSI as being statistically correlated to market movement 1-3 days forward. Total new short ideas as a percentage of all new ideas sent to investment managers by way of the TIM increased slightly to 33.21% on August 6th from 33.19% on July 30th. Shorts represent 34.96% of broker ideas in August, compared to 40.69% year to date.

As for individual securities in the U.S. and North America, Hartford Financial Services Group (HIG), Novellus Systems (NVLS), and DaVita (DVA) were the stocks most recommended as longs by institutional brokers, while Cablevision Systems (CVC), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), and Altera (ALTR) were recommended as shorts. The consumer discretionary, materials, and financial sectors had the biggest week over week change in long broker sentiment, while the telecommunication services, consumer staples, and information technology sectors had the largest weekly change in short sentiment.

Tobias Levkovich, chief U.S. equity strategist at Citigroup, presented his bullish perspective on CNBC Thursday (see CNBC article).

Source: CNBC Video
Some points from the Levkovich interview include:

• Production rates have to pick-up, and not because final demand is picking-up, but because inventory levels are so low.
• Earnings are a function of production. Top-line growth will pick-up. This will cause the second half GDP to be higher.
  
• Cost controls were not a one quarter phenomenon, but will provide even more operating leverage to the upside going forward.
• Worries of lower consumer spending hurting GDP are overblown. Over the last 30 years nearly all of the growth of consumer spending as a percent of GDP has come from health care expenditures. It is an illusion that we have always had isolated increased spending. When spending did increase, so did wealth. Debt increased $6 trillion, but assets increase $24 trillion over the same time frame.
• While we will see sales growth this year (which is counter to conventional wisdom), 2010 estimates that are calling for a 22% gain in earnings might be a little high.
• Finally, while there is a possibility of a market correction later in the year, an overshoot to 1,100 on the S&P 500 is very plausible. Positive moves in the market will be supported by the strength of Q2 earnings and the probability of second half earnings power.

Mark Axelowitz, director of wealth management at Morgan Stanley Smith Barney, and adviser to very high net worth individuals, was recently on CNBC's Fast Money program discussing trends that he has noticed among ultra high net worth individuals (see CNBC article).

Source: CNBC Video
Just as many investors are jumping back into stocks, essentially afraid that they may have missed the recent rising market, ultra high new worth individuals are more cautious, and appear to be worried about inflation, the dollar, and of course, taxes. This macro-economic perspective has kept the rich from chasing the recent rally, and instead has them investing heavily in fixed income instead of equities as they shy away from diving into the market with both feet. The rich stay rich for a reason. Maybe it is time to pay attention.

According to the recent TIM (Trade Ideas Monitor) report, the TIM Sentiment Index (TSI) fell into bearish territory as it decreased 2.4% week over week to 49.84 on July 30th, from 51.06 on July 23rd (see last week's post, and previous post and the youDevise website for additional information on the TIM report). Nonetheless, the index increased 9.3% on Thursday. New short ideas as a percentage of all new ideas sent to investment managers increased from 28.26% a week ago to 46.92% on Tuesday, then back to 33.19%. Shorts are 36.72% of ideas in July and 40.95% for the year. As result, the index is indicating that while brokers are generally bullish with their new ideas, they have increased their profit taking as the market continues to rise.

As for individual securities in the U.S. and North America, Viacom (VIAb), GSI Commerce (GSIC), and Adtran (ADTN) were stocks recommended as longs by institutional brokers, while Cymer (CYMI), Saks (SKS), and Priceline (PCLN) were recommended as shorts. The industrials, financials, and consumer staples sectors had long broker sentiment for the week, while the utility, energy, and information technology sectors had short sentiment.