Former Black Swan Fund Traders Now Betting On Hyperinflation

36 South Investment Managers, the hedge fund managers who made 234 percent betting on "black swan" events in 2008, are now placing their bets on hyperinflation (see Bloomberg article). The new fund, called the Excelsior Fund, is targeting returns that will be five times the average inflation rate for the France, Germany, Japan, U.K., and U.S. economies. The Excelsior Fund will make its bets on inflation by buying long-dated options that are currently cheap (i.e., typically deep-out-of-the-money options). The fund will be using the options to look for increases in commodities and equity prices, along with increases in bond yields and currency volatility. Given that the options are deep-out-of-the-money, the fund will be very high risk, but carry the potential for very high returns.