As Goes January Goes, So Goes The Year? Yikes!

There is an old market rule of thumb that states as "January goes, so goes the year." Often the January Indicator pertains to the first five days of January, other times to the entire month. This year it may not really matter. As it turns out, this is the worst January on record for all of the major indexes, except the Nasdaq - and even the Nasdaq is nothing to write home about. The DJIA was down 8.8 percent, the S&P 500 was down 8.5 percent, the Nasdaq was down 6.2 percent, and the Russell 2000 was down 11.0 percent. The Dow Transports, which are used by some as a barometer and forecast for movement in the industrials and the broader market, was down a whopping 16.0 percent. Certainly, not an encouraging start to the new year.

On the lighter side, at least this weekend we have the Super Bowl to enjoy, along with the Super Bowl Indicator to watch - which states that "a Super Bowl win for a team from the old AFL (AFC division) foretells a decline in the stock market for the coming year, and that a win for a team from the old NFL (NFC division) means the stock market will be up for the year." Given the market action over the last six months, even those market participants that think technical analysis is irrelevant, and indicators are just plain silly, may be saying "Go Cardinals." Yes. I know. I am grabbing for straws.

Note (update): Not that it matters, but apparently the Steelers and Cardinals are legacy teams from before the NFL’s merger with the AFL. Therefore, according to the SB indicator it should be a good year for stocks regardless of who wins the game. Of course, if you are investing based on this indicator, then maybe you should move your money to Treasuries (well, then again .....).