Speculators Are Being Blamed Again, But Now For Falling Prices

Commodity index investors (ie, speculators) sold $39 billion worth of crude oil futures between the July market peaks and September 2nd, a time that saw a rapid sell-off in crude oil prices (see Independend.ie article). The analysis was once again done my Michael Masters, president of Masters Capital Management, who recently blamed speculators for driving up prices. The drop also comes at time when the IEA is forecasting lower demand, and pension and hedge funds are unwinding commodity positions, each of which have put pressure on prices. In the end, such debate may be academic as to whether we call those selling speculators (be it hedge funds, pension funds, index funds, or individual traders). Given the exposure we all have to pensions and index funds (even us retail money mortals), we all might be classified as speculators, notwithstanding the evil mustache-twisting monopoly banker image. Of course, all this talk says nothing as for whether speculators are even inherently bad for the markets in whole (see US News & World Report blog). After all, who is going to take the other side of the position when a company is looking to hedge its risk? If the market is rising or falling, will there always be the perfect number of textbook farmers and bakers on the other side of the wheat contract? Probably not. How many companies will show higher profits, or at least less loss, due to placing proper hedges? Raising margins to decrease leverage and unhealthy exposure is one thing, but making it more difficult for the market to even function is another. If we eliminate all trades and traders that don't actually plan to buy or sell the commodity, liquidity will decrease. If this does happen, individuals may find themselves living in a much riskier world, even if the price of crude seems a little less volatile day-to-day.