Shifts From Treasuries To Corporate Bonds

As recently reported by IndexUniverse.com, in the last few months the yields on Treasuries have been rising, while yields on corporate bonds have been falling, signaling a shift from Treasuries to corporate bonds. But does this imply that investors are no longer worrying about the economy and therefore don't feel that they need the safety of Treasuries? Are investors simply sector shifting into corporate bonds? Closer inspection shows that while investment grade corporate bond yields have fallen recently (junk bond yields have fallen more), investment-grade corporate yields have actually remained relatively steady over the last year as Treasuries prices fell and their yields increased. Furthermore, even with the recent sell-off of Treasuries, the spreads between investment-grade corporate bonds and Treasuries is still above historical averages, signaling that there are still better deals in investment-grade corporates and that the sector shift is not complete. Rotation is also being suggested in part due to a belief that if Treasury yields do continue to rise, prices could fall much further and change much quicker than corporate bonds on average given that Treasury yields have been down so much in the last year, suggesting prices have gotten ahead of themselves.